What outcome will trigger nationwide rioting in the Derek Chauvin case?

Not guilty would trigger them.

If lord lestermount appears behind. Derek chauvin in his showerstall a riot will break out

If Republicans were still in control of Washington, a Chauvin acquittal would probably trigger nationwide rioting. But, I don't think BLM will riot even if Chauvin is acquitted now that Democrats hold the majorities, unless Democrats refuse to make a significant move toward reforming policing.

people will riot in all cases. Antifa/blm/CCP are all preparing to riot. 

The first outcome based on your post  I can think of is an accidental killing.  Then there could be the mildest degrees of manslaughter.  Then other possible outcomes are Chauvin is given a suspended sentence, house arrest, x number of hours of community service.sert free aft the conclusion of the trial for time served.  

An obvious one, manslaughter charge, and he is sentenced to 5 years with a chance of being out in 3. The defense knows there is no way he won't be convicted, evidence is plain as day. They are going for the manslaughter charge.